Mood bullish ahead of investment ratings announcement.
If Moody’s do keep its foreign and domestic currency debt at investment grade, it will be seen by the investment community as a thumbs up for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. The rand and the stock market are likely to rally; it will be a positive message.
That’s according to Tom Elliott, International Investment Strategist at the deVere Group. He was speaking ahead of an announcement expected later this week, in which Moody’s is set to announce its latest outlook on South Africa.
“But investors should appreciate it’s still early days in the post-Zuma era, and there will continue to be scepticism as to whether Ramaphosa can really deliver. Investors want to see not only economic growth, but evidence that the ANC can clean itself of corruption,” says Elliott.
“Investors should appreciate it’s still early days in the post-Zuma era, and there will continue to be scepticism as to whether Ramaphosa can really deliver.” – Tom Elliott, deVere Group
“On President Ramaphosa’s to-do-soon list should be making labour laws more flexible, i.e. taking on the same unions who help finance the ANC. And also, sorting out the country’s power shortage. Last week’s delay in the signing of 27 IPPs was not a good development.”
A couple of high profile corruption convictions would send a positive message that the rule of law has returned, explains Elliott.
“However, there will be plenty of senior ANC members who will put up a fight on this and try to de-stabilise President Ramaphosa. They may well find allies with the unions who object to a reform of labour laws.”